Election Speculation

Rumours persist in speculation of an election early in 2009. By this I do not mean that like a sniffer dog I skulk in the corridors of Whitehall, or that I have been party to political pillow talk. Nothing so illicit. I simply mean that after chatting with friends I have heard rumours, from those apparently in the know, that there is an election likely early in 2009. And if these rumours have reached my ears they must be pretty insistent rumours, as I have not one jot of insider knowledge of my own to go on.

Personally I am indifferent as to when the best time for an election would be, for Plaid. The sight of Brown clinging on to the bitter end would be amusing/dismaying. and things as they are with the economy Things Can Only Get Worse. So in many respects the longer Brown waits the better. Regardless of when the next election happens it is likely to be coloured by what effects people most anyway- hatred of the tories or disappointment with New Labour, and in this equation Plaid are likely to do well. If an election was called in Feb it would most likely be a parliament close to hung. This would give the balance of power to Celtic Nationalists and Lib Dems and this would be pretty much the ideal result for Plaid. Whoever wins we will be stuck with either another New Labour or a Tory government regardless. This, in my opinion, makes the case for further devolution as strong as it has ever been, and much needed. Wales needs to be a bastion of de-centred social democratic governance, a world apart from the values of middle england. We will only be able to make this a reality with a proper parliament with proper powers.

Bring on the All Wales convention.
Bring on the euro elections.
And yeah, bring on a general election sometime too.

Gaza Protests

Demonstrations and events relating to the crisis in Gaza are continuing in Wales:

* Protest march through Cardiff at 2pm on Friday January 9, assembling on the green opposite City Hall.

* Fundraising benefit concert on Wednesday, January 7, at 7:30pm in Dempseys, Castle Street, Cardiff: tickets £5 or donation at the door, in aid of charity Middle East Childrens Alliance.

* Fundraising dinner in aid of Islamic Relief Fund Wales, Thursday, January 8, 6 pm-10 pm, City Hall Cardiff; tickets £15 from 0782 4465159

Plaid politicians on the situation

Jill Evans MEP

"Plaid Cymru has long campaigned for an end to the Israeli occupation of Palestine and for a two-state solution. We opposed the siege of Gaza which caused such terrible suffering. Gaza itself is smaller than Wrexham or Rhondda Cynon Taf but has a population of 1.5 million. The bombardment and now the ground invasion of this poor and heavily populated area will cause untold misery.

"There have been many calls for a ceasefire which Israel has ignored. The time has come for action.

"One concrete step would be for the European Union to suspend Israel’s privileged trade agreement with Europe, which requires Israel to respect human rights. This would send the clearest signal of the need for an urgent ceasefire."

Plaid President Dafydd Iwan said:

"In my New Year message, I called for people to work together to create a more peaceful world. Most of the world's problems can be better served by talking and negotiations than by military might.

"The state of Israel is showing once again that it believes everything can be solved by military action, and they are in danger of losing the support and sympathy of people across the world who see this as a totally unnecessary act of aggression against a country which is in no position to defend itself.

"We must work with the United Nations to bring peace and stability in the Middle East, but I fear this latest action has made everything more difficult, including the rebuilding of civil life for Palestinians and Israelis.

"The UK government must revoke its support for any new agreements with Israel. The European Parliament should refuse to endorse any extension of existing agreements and should exert its influence to prevent further EU benefits going Israel whilst it fails to observe its international legal and humanitarian obligations."

Book your place on the coach for the Gaza protests in central London Jan 10th.

CARDIFF
Coaches stopping 8 am, Museum Steps, Cardiff & 8.30 Bus Station, Newport
Tickets - £16 waged / £10 unwaged
Contact - Adam Johannes, cardifftroopsout@googlemail.com or 07940108146 to book

Israel/Palestine/Gaza

I was chatting to a friend of mine the other week, a journalist who used to work for a Palestinian news agency. He was telling me how many younger people in Palestine would favour a confederal peace settlement. By this he means the creation of a joint Arab/Jewish state where all citizens were afforded the same rights and opportunities. He also said that such a settlement would be impossible. Such is the entrenchment and hatred on the extremes of both sides.

One begins to get a sense of the racist and supremacist ideology of some Zionists by reading, the dire vitriol of, for example Ralph Peters. A quick glance at various Hamas manifestos throughout history and you will find terrifying anti-semitic language and calls for the destruction of Israel. Even a cursory understanding of history lends credibility to the motives of such extremism however.

History is a role-call of tragedy. The persecution of Jews throughout Christian history, a process which found ultimate expression in the atrocities of the holocaust, makes the desires for a Jewish homeland completely understandable. The diaspora had failed spectacularly to protect its people. This also makes sense of the suspicion with which the the non-Jewish world is held by some Israeli factions. Really, despite periods of tolerance, there have been episodes of extreme violence and persecution against the Jews for generations.

History however should not be used as a blank cheque book. Persecution at the hands of Europeans in decades and centuries past does not excuse the Israeli actions of now. This is a very real and very modern persecution that is being inflicted on the Palestinians as their lands are blockaded and occupied and their people, soldiers and civilians alike, are left destitute and murdered. It seems geo-political convenience will not permit the application of International Law. Israel continues to hold illegal nuclear weapons and occupy land while the international community (europe, US, and arab nations) wrings its hands in muted complicity, making only overtures to the notion of a peace process. This reality does not at all justify acts of violence against the larger Israeli populace, but it explains it.

Most vile of all has been the Israeli government using attacks against their population as an excuse to press home their ideological and geographical advantage in the region over the last week. The silence from the international community, in part down to leaders unwilling to interrupt their Christmas break I imagine, has been a disgrace. A new administration is on the way in over in Washington, and they are unlikely to be as pliable as the Bush hawks. In light of this the Israeli government has presumably moved to decapitate the Hamas leadership and attain as many bargaining chips as possible when dealing with new Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama.

Hamas are a beast from the sludge and desperation under the colonial boot. Seen from the Palestinian side that beast is most like a Phoneix. This Phoneix, as it appears to some, offers hope, and that is the currency all political organisations wish to posses. It is hope that wins elections, and why Hamas are a democratically elected party of government.

This current Israeli incursion deserves to be condemned from every humane and educated quarter as it moves, without regard for civilian life, to cement its supremacy in Gaza.

Notes on Welsh Nationalism and Happy New Year

Over Christmas I went to my brother's house for lunch. It was a family affair with a grand buffet, the normal kind of Christmas family party that I hated from my mid-teens until my 20s then started to enjoy again a few years back.

Over a sausage roll (staple Christmas fare) he asked me- "you still writing for those nationalists then?" This use of the word nationalist pricked my ears, as it is a most often used by those attacking Plaid. Nationalism does not enjoy a universal positive image in the UK. The legacy and memory of two world wars ensures that the word is viewed with a suspicion. The trick of those who would attack plaid is to try and make an unmentioned link between nationalism and fascism. But as anyone who has viewed Plaid's policies can tell you there is hardly a right wing bone in the body politic. In fact Plaid's policies, like those of Nationalist governments and parties the world over (SNP, Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail, Catalanists), veer from centrist liberalism to socialist (while never, obviously, becoming national socialist) As a party I think it is fair to say Plaid are well to the left of the current Labour party, and to the right of, for example, the SWP. The left/right divide is of course a crude and increasingly inadequate model for understanding the political spectrum.

There are of course innumerable nationalist parties out there that harbour vile right wing elements. The Northern League in Italy (Italian regionalism in general has a distinctively right wing flavour) would be a prime example of this. The Republican party of the US is another. It goes to prove that words and concepts are tricky. Meanings are not fixed. And nationalism is a schizophrenic entity. For every Bismark there is a Michael Collins.

Crudely speaking nationalism has its roots in two distinct historical tendencies. One being libertarian republicanism, which first found expression in the US and French revolutions, and the writings like those ofTom Paine. The other kind of nationalism has its roots in fascism and national socialism. The kind preferred by Franco, Musolini, and Hitler, that champions the myth of rebirth and the myth of the nation. It is laced with social conservatism and racism. However, nearly all political movements have swallowed and embraced nationalism to some extent. We are all of us nationalists really.

Unless you believe in the immediate dissolution of the EU, the UN, the removal of all national borders and all nation states by means of revolution, you yourself are a nationalist in one form or other. But I guess we don't think of it like that most the time. We rarely interrogate our identities, they seem implicit rather than fluid. Identity however is not fixed, especially not national identity.

So when asked if I am a nationalist I say yes. While not without problematics it seems no crime to me, and I am proud to state, that the Welsh people deserve sovereignty. We all of us regardless of nation deserve democratic institutions answerable the the people. Power should be disseminated to the masses. The greatest happiness for the greatness number of people is only attainable once the greatest number of people have the power to attain autonomy and mastery over their socio-political destiny. This is where socialism comes in. I am pipe dreaming and waxing lyrical of course, but there is a proud tradition of this in Wales and beyond. "I am not the only one of my kind".

Either way, word up, here is one hope for the new year.

That the sovereignty and rights of the people of Palestine are respected in equal measure as Israel's right to exist. Another pipe dream of course, but never-the-less an historical imperative.

Happy new year to you all and thanks for reading x

Review Of the Year

It is that time of the year again. A time of taking stock of all that you have, or more likely would like to have. A time when we turn to family, tinsel, and maybe the idea of the innocent baby Jesus, to stave off the yawing emptiness at the edge of our lives.

It has been a funny old year. On a personal level I am grateful for my partner's much improved health, the new flat, and the handful of poems, articles, and essays I've had published. And the few songs I've manged to write and perform with the aid of my trusty acoustic guitar.

This world is bigger than me however, at least the world feels bigger than me, which is why I joined a political party. The most openly democratic, and leftist party, in Wales that is. As Ron Davies once said "devolution is a process not an event." I am pleased with my tiny contributions to this event- an event which could, with time and luck, see a dynamic Wales and Welsh people, institutionally ready to face the numerous challenges ahead, and an example of democracy and co-operation in practice. Such heady aspirations are of course flavoured with cynicism.

This year, for example, we have seen:

The Iraqi government start selling off www.handsoffiraqioil.org The Iraqi people's oil reserves. Such a moves render the invasion and occupation a total commercial success while cementing the legacy of humanitarian disaster.

The world watched on with a face somewhere between horror and disapprobation as Burmese rulers sat upon their hands after the country was hit by acyclone and aid failed to be distributed.

The collapse of the Western Financial sector. Our liberal capitalist system was only saved by state intervention on an unprecedented scale. The coffers of central treasuries around the world have been ransacked in order to ensure the continued lack of integrity in the global capital markets and the restoration of the appearance of liquidity. All in all it is a vindication of Lenin's maxim 'that capitalists will always have the funds to prevent any crisis, as long as it is the workers that foot the bill.'

There were no palpable human rights improvements in China as a result of the OlympicGames. Any cynicism from the Welsh people is largely drowned out by cheers as Nicole Cooke brings home the first British Gold medal.

Bolivia faces an internal crisis as the country's wealthy elite make the most self interested claims for autonomy ever. The media, and the left in general, is weirdly silent in its support for the Evo Morales government (even if Tony Benn et al did eventually send out an excellent letter to the broadsheets)

Civilians suffer as Russia is engaged in a game of geo-political chess in Georgia

Italy elect Silvio Berlusconi (again). He forms a coalition with the far right and Italy is given a de facto fascist government (again).

The US electorate defy prejudice and a somewhat dicey electoral system to elect Barrack Obama. He'll take the reins of this imperial looking democracy in the New Year.

There is no real development in the fight against Climate Change, just the familiar prevarication.

Closer to home

Gordon Brown doubles the income tax burden on the poorest in society by imposing a 100% income tax increase on the lowest earners, he then has to backtrack (a little bit). Tax rises for the richest are postponed until after the next election.

Benefits are to be reformed. It seems the sick and incapacitated might be forced to work for free at Tescos or the suchlike in order to keep benefits.

Wales sees a 25% increase in unemployment in three months. Public sector jobs are still cut in Wales.

New Labour first want to shut 1000s of post offices, then want to keep them open. Now it seems they wish to part privatise them.

Key Plaid policies like the Welsh Language Act, and the reversal of the right to buy, are given a hard time by New Labour MPs as they come before them in the form of LCOs. Some talk (correctly) of a constitutional crisis. Most people are unaware of this as they don't know what LCO stands for.

Everyone's favourite droll mopheaded bumbling reactionary closet racist Boris Johnson is elected as mayor of London.

An open verdict is returned on the John Charles De Menezes shooting. The jury were prohibited from returning the verdict of unlawful killing.

Gwent Ambulance response times are among the worst in the UK. (a post on this subject is forthcoming)

On the plus side

Plaid make some gains and new Labour suffer massive defeats in the local elections. Even Kier Hardie's old stomping ground of Blaenau Gwent is lost by New Labour.

SNP make key gains in Scotland- even taking Glasgow East.

There is a special fund for sub-post offices.

Train lines are finally being improved and extended in Wales.

There is a special mortgage relief fund in Wales.

It looks like the devastatingly awful idea of an M4 relief road is all set not to happen (as the Welsh transport budget has been syphoned off to pay for the London Olympics, apparently)

OK- that concludes my review of the year- if there anything that I've missed (there must be) please fill me in...

Why new Labour really 'saved' the Post Offices:

A few weeks back Peter Mandelson apparently championed a policy to save the Post Offices from threats of closure. A host of New Labour MPs, who had campaigned to keep these amenities open at local level, and then voted for their closure (if they bothered to vote at all), breathed a sigh of relief. Now they could claim to be saviours of this essential public service even if it was their lot who had imperiled it in the first place.

Now the real reason why the post offices were saved isrevealed however. New Labour intend to part privatise the service- and endanger up to 50,000 jobs in the process.

Post Offices have only been saved so that the costs associated with running it can be bumped off the balance sheet, and treasury coffers can be boosted by the sale. As ever, with PFI, there will be be no real saving, and while the risks of running the service will continue with the government any profits will be skimmed off by the private sector. No wonder this practice was so readily embraced by big business.

The usual, and numerous criticisms, of PFI will be be as appropriate with this deal as they are elsewhere. New Labour however, remain wedded to this accountancy sleight of hand.

Winter Fuel

This campaign was launched today. I think the logic of such a move is indisputable- while of course such a move flies in the face of New Labour and Conservative politicians keen to keep the private sector sweet at all costs.


Gwent Winter Deaths 2007

Blaenau Gwent
24

Caerphilly
46

Islwyn
40

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
44

Monmouth
42

Newport East
32

Newport West
52

Torfaen
36